Alert track record

How Flight Signal's alerts held up

Judged alerts sent 10 July 2026 – 2 September 2026 · 113 judged of 169 old enough · rebuilt 5 September 2026

Across 113 Flight Signal flight alerts old enough to judge (sent 2026-07-10–2026-09-02), 89% of the 109 with fares observed within 14 days either side were the cheapest for that same trip, and the median alert came in £0 below the same trip's later observed prices.

Every judged alert

Each alert we sent, joined to later observations of the same trip (identical dates). The change column compares the alerted price with the most recent fare we've since observed for that exact trip. We include the 11 alerts where the fare dropped further afterwards — a fair record shows the misses too.

How this is measured

• Which alerts. Only alerts sent more than 48 hours ago, with at least one later observation of the same trip — a fare needs time to move before "what happened next" means anything. 113 of 186 sent alerts qualify (premium-cabin alerts are excluded — our history is economy-only).
• The trip & route. Each alert is judged only against observations of the identical outbound + return dates, on the exact route it fired on (departure airport and destination), or the London-metro route when the airport wasn't resolved.
• Latest observed & change. The most recent fare we've observed for that same trip after the alert. Change = latest − alerted; positive means the alert beat the later price.
• Cheapest ±14d. Whether the alerted price was the lowest fare we observed for that same trip within 14 days either side of the alert.
• Median. The nearest-rank 50th percentile of the per-alert changes (the lower of the two middle values for an even count) — the same convention as our price index — computed over all figures including the negatives.
• Confidence. The verification tier recorded when the alert was sent; hover a row's score for the deal basis used (methodology).

All figures come from our own committed price history — no fabricated "was" prices. See the full price index →